Trust takes years to build, seconds to break, and forever to repair.
One aspect of the last year that boggles my mind is the apparent disregard “Public Health” professionals have for whether or not the common people trust them. I mean, isn’t trust in “the experts” the most important thing during a global pandemic? With high trust, the people are likely to listen to the experts and adopt their guidance. With low trust, the people are likely to start ReOpen groups or otherwise rebel against guidance (*cough*, *cough*).
If I were in a position to guide public health policy, my #1 concern would be ensuring that common people have good reason to trust me. I wouldn’t promise “two weeks to flatten the curve”, and then keep schools closed for a year. I wouldn’t promise that masks will “give us more freedom“, and then turn around and say “j/k lol”. I wouldn’t predict doom and gloom for fearless states like Texas and Florida, and then refuse to confess just how wrong I was when those states shine.
Clearly, Public Health needs a booster shot of intellectual honesty.
The most recent chapter in this saga is Public Health’s blind acceptance that cases are falling because of the vaccine. Before I get into exposing this propaganda for the lie that it is, I want to make one thing clear: All indications are that the vaccine is doing exactly what we all hoped it would do: reduce symptoms. That accomplishment alone is worth singing from the mountain tops, as now every American adult has access to be protected from the virus. That should be enough to end all of the hysteria and let us all move on with our lives.
But it isn’t.
It’s not good enough for the vaccine to just reduce symptoms–we have to also believe that it is the cause for Springtime reductions in cases. Or so “the experts” say.
Over the last month here in Bucks County, we have been force-fed the notion that vaccine uptake is the reason cases have been dropping. Lest I need to prove this, I present to you Exhibit A:
So Bucks County Government, along with its own Bucks County Health Department and Health Director Dr. David Damsker, claims that vaccines are bringing cases down. Are they?
To answer that question, let’s compare this month (May 2021) with the same month from a year ago (May 2020). At this point, there is not a single informed human being on earth who doesn’t know that SARS-CoV-2 is highly seasonal. By comparing the same months in different years, we should remove any seasonality factors in order to see what effect the vaccine itself is having.
Here are the 7-day rolling averages for daily cases in Bucks County. On the left is May 2020, and on the right is May 2021.
Hmmmmm, soooo those charts look kind of the same. Maybe back in May 2020 cases went down because the virus knew the vaccine was coming 6 months later, so it ran away in fear 🤷♂️
What makes this case curve similarity even more striking is that in May 2020 testing was going up-up-up, while now, in May 2021, testing is going down-down-down. — Source
So, let’s go back to those statements from Bucks County Government indicating that the vaccine is responsible for the May 2021 decline in cases. How would they like to explain May of 2020? (hint: it’s seasonality)
The overall case curvature is pretty much identical between May 2020 and May 2021, despite us increasing our testing throughout May 2020 and decreasing our testing throughout May 2021. And we’re supposed to believe that vaccines are responsible for an effect that we can’t even see? How can there be any causation when there isn’t even any correlation?
But what about the big picture?
Okay, so maybe the vaccine isn’t responsible for cases coming down in May. But surely it must be doing something to reduce cases, right? I mean, it’s a vaccine. And the entire mainstream media is laying it on pretty thick:
“U.S. Covid-19 cases have broadly fallen for over a month now as vaccination levels climbed”
Unfortunately, after looking at all 50 states plus D.C., I’m pretty sure that the vaccine is having absolutely zero effect on case curvature. Let me show you why.
In the following charts, I used Worldometers to gather data on COVID-19 cases and deaths for each state, and I used the New York Times Vaccination Tracker to gather data on each state’s current vaccination percentage. To make things as easy as possible for you, I have uploaded the raw data in its final form via spreadsheet here. You’re welcome.
First, let’s look at how vaccine uptake in every state compares with current caseload. In the following diagram, the vertical axis shows % of the state that is vaccinated. Higher on the vertical axis means that more of the state is vaccinated; lower means less is vaccinated. The horizontal axis shows the average caseload of each state as of yesterday (May 23, 2021). The left of the horizontal axis means lower caseload; the right means higher caseload.
Now, if vaccines were responsible for significant case reduction, then we should see a strong correlative effect, meaning a downward sloping line. Instead, we have a line that is almost perfectly flat, indicating extremely low correlation between how many people in a state are vaccinated and how much COVID that state currently has. The R-squared value of 0.0031 is a gut-shot to any “expert” claiming that vaccines are bringing cases down. It means there is basically no correlation, let alone any causation.
Next, let’s move away from current caseload and instead look at how cases have fallen in the various states. In the following diagram, the vertical axis shows % of the state that is vaccinated. Higher on the vertical axis means that more of the state is vaccinated; lower means less is vaccinated. The horizontal axis shows how far the 7-day case average has fallen since January 1, 2021. A higher percentage (to the right) means that cases have fallen further since January 1, whereas a lower percentage (to the left) means that they have fallen less.
If the vaccine worked to reduce cases, then we would expect to see a positively sloping line (that means a line that rises as it moves from left to right). A positively sloping line would indicate that a higher % vaccinated is correlated with a higher % drop in cases since January 1. A flat line would indicate no correlation. A negatively sloping line (like what you see) indicates a….negative correlation.
Hold up, let’s make sure to absorb that. The trend-line of this chart, with its negative slope, means that a higher vaccination rate is correlated with a lower reduction in cases since January 1. Conversely, a lower vaccination rate is correlated with a higher reduction in cases since January 1.
For added emphasis, consider that Vermont (highest vaccine uptake in America at 69%) has a below-average 69.5% drop in cases since January 1, whereas Mississippi (lowest vaccine uptake in America at 33%) has an above-average 89% drop.
Wow — you won’t hear that from the CDC! Remember, the vaccine is the best thing since sliced bread and it makes better meatballs than your grandmother. Never mind the pesky data, just go get your shot!
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
The real tragedy in all of this, like I said before, is that the vaccine does appear to be working. Dr. Damsker has recently stated that only 2% of people hospitalized with COVID in Bucks County are vaccinated. If that number is correct, then the pandemic is, for all intents and purposes, over. Every American adult who wants to be protected can be protected. There is nobody left to “protect”, unless forcefully protecting people who don’t want protection is your sort of thing.
I’m not asking anyone to downplay the success of the vaccine or to downplay the joyous fact that cases fall during Springtime. Both of those are truth, and both of them are great things. The folly comes when Public Health goes too far, gets too greedy, and loses track of what-is and what-isn’t. I’m calling for professionals in Public Health, especially in Bucks County, to be honest and straightforward with the reality of the situation. That’s the only way to rebuild trust. And rebuilding trust is perhaps the toughest challenge ahead.
